(CNN Philippines)Metro Manila – The OCTA Research group does not see any downward trend of COVID-19 cases in the country by Aug. 20, an indication the strictest enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Metro Manila may possibly go beyond that date.

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David explained that based on the history of the country’s battle against COVID-19, it takes three to four weeks before infections decrease from a surge.

“Whatever happens, we probably don’t see a downward trend yet on August 20,” David told CNN Philippines’ Newsroom Weekend on Saturday.

“Even if maging effective ang ECQ, hindi natin makikita agad ang decrease. Maso-slow down muna yung increase, bababa yung reproduction number, then finally magkakaroon ng downward trend,” he said.

[Translation: Even if the ECQ will be effective, we cannot immediately feel the decrease. The increase in cases would slow down, the reproduction number will go down, then finally there will be a downward trend.]

David added that almost all areas in the country – except for General Santos City and Iloilo City – are recording higher COVID-19 cases per day.

Based on OCTA’s data, the country’s reproduction rate as of Saturday is at 1.46. David said the rate is 1.85 in Metro Manila and “almost two” in Cavite.