(The Manila Times) THE Philippines is among the commodity-dependent group of emerging markets (EM) with generally good fundamentals that will profit once commodity prices fall following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to analysts at Nomura Securities Ltd.
Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh wrote in a research released on Tuesday that they have recently changed to a more nuanced approach, aware of the hazards of assessing EM as one homogeneous group because they perceive a growing difference between EM winners and losers.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, they argued, adds another degree of difficulty to the EM outlook.
“This is no doubt a major shock for EM economies but, as we will explain, it is not necessarily negative for all; this crisis and surge in commodity prices is likely to drive a further wedge between EM winners and losers,” they said.
The analysts said EM economies are vulnerable to the Russia-Ukraine conflict through two main channels: direct exposure through trade and investment linkages with the warring countries; and indirect exposure through a rise in commodity prices… Read More